The Oscars will announce this year’s nominations on their Youtube channel early tomorrow morning, and I am at kid on Christmas morning levels of excitement right now. All the film critics and podcasters I follow have been throwing down their predictions, and it can get a little overwhelming to follow the various trains of thought. Some rely heavily on precursor awards and nominations. Others speculate about how the changing — or, more specifically, the increasingly international — membership of the Academy might influence nominations. Others still cling to stats and data to gauge what historical precedent can tell us.
While I still have some films to catch up on, I have my own guess as to which will end up on the list of the 10 Best Picture nominees. Pundits seem to mostly agree on 1-8, but then the last two spots get really dicey, so I’ve ranked these films in order of most confident to least confident.
And, to be clear, this list and its ranking does NOT reflect my personal preferences. These are not necessarily films that I want nominated. They’re the films I think will be nominated. To predict the Oscars, you have to separate your heart from your head.
The Power of the Dog
Image Credit: The Wrap
Netflix’s slow burn psychological thriller set in the American West has been pretty consistently named the frontrunner in the race at this point. Jane Campion, who also wrote and directed The Piano in 1993, seems to be a foregone conclusion to win the Best Director category, and there’s also some buzz for her in the Adapted Screenplay category as well. This film has a lot of potential acting nominations; Benedict Cumberbatch will surely show up in Best Actor tomorrow, and his co-star Kodi Smit McPhee is a strong contender in Best Supporting Actor. As I note in my review, the film may not be the most accessible because there is a lot of subtext, but the production, writing, score, acting, etc. are undeniable.
Belfast
Image Credit: Vox
Kenneth Branagh’s black and white childhood memoir joined the Oscar conversation very early on when it premiered in September, and it has stayed surprisingly strong the entire time. It’s a sentimental crowdpleaser that strikes a healthy balance between serious drama and light-hearted, feel-good charm; the violence of The Troubles in Ireland is very present in the film but is much more of a backdrop than a politicized subject, giving way to an adorable child performance and emotionally potent performances by projected nominees Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) and Ciarán Hinds (a very accomplished actor who also happens to be Steppenwolf in Zack Snyder’s Justice League). Oh, and it has a love letter to the movies subplot. It’s Oscar bait in every way. (It’s also available to rent on demand for $19.99.)
Licorice Pizza
Image Credit: The Hollywood Reporter
This film had an insane amount of anticipation because film nerds love director Paul Thomas Anderson, and with good reason; he brought us There Will Be Blood, Boogie Nights, and, more recently Phantom Thread. But the reviews for it were more mixed than I would have expected, and there has been some controversy surrounding the use of Asian stereotyping and a relationship with a substantial age gap. In precursor awards and through BAFTA (the British Oscars) nominations, though, the film has been over-performing, solidifying its place on this expected Best Picture list. I haven’t seen it yet because it’s still playing in theaters only. Hopefully I can correct that soon.
King Richard
Image Credit: Variety
Most of the conversation around the Venus and Serena Williams biopic has revolved around Will Smith’s chance at his first Oscar (I still can’t believe he doesn’t have one already). The film itself hasn’t had a lot of buzz lately, so part of me is paranoid that we’re all naively assuming it will make it in. On the other hand, it’s won enough accolades to keep it in the running. As I discuss in my review, it’s a smart, fresh take on the biopic genre, and I hope it gets the recognition it deserves.
Dune
Image Credit: Variety
A lot of folks have been hoping that Spider-Man: No Way Home would get some Oscar love since it was the biggest box office success this year, but what they didn’t seem to realize is that the Academy already has a popular genre blockbuster with high production value and just enough prestige for them to comfortably anoint it. Many critics have compared it to Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) for this reason. Denis Villeneuve’s visionary adaptation of Frank Herbert’s classic sci fi novel has been raking in nominations, especially in the “below the line” or more technical categories, and Oscar morning should be no different. This might be my all-time favorite film from last year, so I couldn’t be happier for it to sweep all day long.
Don’t Look Up
Image Credit: NY Times
Adam McKay, the director that brought us the Anchorman series but, more recently, more serious fare like The Big Short and Vice, has had a lot of success at the Oscars. And while his political satire, Don’t Look Up, didn’t work for me and has not been received well critically, it became very popular streaming on Netflix over the holidays. And I can’t deny that it taps into a lot of the anxieties of our current social, cultural, and political moment. I predict it will over-perform on Oscar morning. I’m even tempted to put McKay in my Best Director nomination line-up.
West Side Story
Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the famed 1957 musical, on the other hand, is likely to underperform. I keep hearing on all my podcasts that West Side Story has missed a lot of big precursor nominations like the editing guild and some key BAFTA categories. Even though Spielberg received a nomination from the Director’s Guild of America (DGA), he’s on the bubble, on the outside looking in for many predicting Best Director. I also haven’t gotten around to seeing this one because it’s still only in theaters. But it really has had a rollercoaster of awards contention speculation: before it even came out, critics thought it would be a Best Picture contender, it flopped at the box office, still managed to have Oscar buzz, and now seems to be falling short of expectations in that regard.
CODA
Image Credit: LA Times
Sian Heder’s heart-tugging, heartwarming story about a young woman who is a Child of Deaf Adults or CODA actually premiered at the Sundance Film Festival around this time last year, so it’s astounding that it still has the momentum to garner any Oscar nominations. Its streaming release on Apple TV+ combined with a strong, sincere campaign from Marlee Matlin, newcomer Emilia Jones, and Best Supporting Actor favorite Troy Kotsur has kept it in the hearts and minds of industry members and critics alike. I’m honestly surprised by this because while I ultimately enjoyed the film, it is more wholesome and cheesier than what critics usually go for.
Tick, Tick…Boom!
Image Credit: NY Times
But, surely, Netflix couldn’t have another Best Picture nominee, could they? I think they can. After coming really close with Best Picture runner-ups for the past few years, and after the pandemic has forever changed the box office, I think streaming services and Netflix specifically finally have the chance to dominate. Lin Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut, honoring a Broadway legend — Rent creator Jonathan Larson — has been a huge hit. And, on top of that, Andrew Garfield is having an amazing year. Now that I mention it, Lin Manuel Miranda’s having an amazing year too, between this and Encanto. Garfield is a safe bet for a Best Actor nomination, and some think he can capitalize on the popularity Spider-Man: No Way Home to give Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch a run for their money. I love this film. It’s very re-watchable and I often keep the soundtrack on repeat while I’m working. I also think it’s a feat of adaptation. Turning an unfinished stage musical into a compelling biopic movie musical is impressive, especially for a first time director. I’d love for that to translate into an Adapted Screenplay nom as well, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
Being the Ricardos
Image Credit: NPR
I suspect that by the time you read this, the Oscar nominations will already be in the news, and that’s because of my last projected nominee. I thought I would start streaming the film on Amazon Prime Video while I finished writing this list, but I was so engrossed that I stopped typing. The reviews for this have been mixed, and a lot of critics are still salty from Aaron Sorkin getting more Oscar recognition for The Trial of the Chicago 7 than he probably deserved. And yes, this is a very Sorkin-y script, and it checks a lot of standard biopic boxes. The casting of Javier Bardem is problematic. The ending certainly has some issues. But Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem had my full attention the entire time. Sorkin does an excellent job of highlighting how a sexist Hollywood made it difficult for Ball to shine, as well as how her tenacity and perfectionism made her the comic genius of legend. And how can Hollywood resist a showbiz movie?
I very nearly switched this out for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car because pundits keep saying that voters will want to put an international pick here. Plus, the film has picked up some unexpected BAFTA nominations, which indicates wider support than expected. I’m also nervous because my list is exactly the same as the Producer’s Guild of America’s (PGA) list of nominees, which statistically is unlikely. Ultimately, though, I just don’t think enough people (including me) have seen the three-hour road drama at this point, and the Academy will have other places to recognize it, like Best Director (which has for the past few years has had a spot reserved for an international director) and Best International Feature. Critics sometimes let their own hopes and dreams cloud their judgment, and I think the predictions for Drive My Car in Best Picture are a prime example of “a critic’s thing.”
Other possibilities I’ve heard include Nightmare Alley, The Lost Daughter, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. Even House of Gucci still has some supporters, even after it missed PGA, which typically rewards popular but not critically acclaimed films more than the Oscars. Nightmare Alley is really the only one I would be tempted to swap out because it’s had a big press push with its HBO Max/Hulu release last week and it’s gotten a fair amount of other nominations.
We’ll see how right I am in the morning!