Even though the Oscars aren’t until March 12, awards season is in full swing. The Golden Globes returned to the air after Hollywood put the The HFPA on notice last year; it seems to have resumed its role as the season’s tone setter, without much (and probably not enough) ado. Fast forward to today: Oscar voting for nominations has closed, pundits have finalized their predictions, and now they wait until tomorrow morning with bated breath to hear who makes it in.
Image Credit: Variety
I’m throwing my hat in the ring as well, with my predictions for which 10 films will garner nominations for Best Picture. I’ve ranked them from most confident to least confident. I know that good listmakers are supposed to go in reverse order to force you to read the entire list, but in this case a.) my brain has to organize these by process of elimination and b.) I think the end of the list is more suspenseful because it’s less certain. So #1 here is the most likely to get in and #10 is the least likely. In fact, there seems to be a consensus that # 1-6 or even 1-7 are pretty safe bets and then critics start to diverge after that.
As always, successful Oscar predicting requires one to separate one’s heart from one’s head. So this list reflects which films I think WILL get into Best Picture and NOT necessarily the films I think SHOULD get into Best Picture.
Everything Everywhere All At Once (Streaming on Paramount+ or through a Showtime add-on with other services.)
Miraculously, the multi-dimensional adventure with a compelling Asian American family drama at its core has emerged as a frontrunner in the race, despite having been released last March. (It can be hard for films to sustain momentum if they don’t have Fall release dates). Some critics said it was too weird for the Academy. Others said it was too small. But its originality and precision in managing narrative chaos has kept this film on the hearts and minds of voters. It’s done well with precursor awards so far; it completely dominated The Critics Choice Awards. Ke Huy Quan is the only predicted “lock” in Best Supporting Actor and Michelle Yeoh is neck and neck with Cate Blanchett in Best Actress right now. It could easily get in Original Screenplay, Sound, and Editing. There’s even talk of the two directors, collectively known as “The Daniels,” beating Steven Spielberg in Best Director. Steven Spielberg! Everyone expects Everything Everywhere to have a great nomination morning. I couldn’t be happier; this was my favorite movie of the year.
The Banshees of Inisherin (Streaming on HBOMax.)
Nipping at EEAAO’s heels is Martin McDonagh’s dark tragicomedy about the breakup of two best friends on a tiny, quiet island in Ireland. It’s steadily gained steam since it over-performed at the Golden Globes, winning three, including Best Musical or Comedy. It also has strong prospects in the acting categories, with the potential for four nominations: Colin Ferrell, the presumed frontrunner in Best Actor, Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan in Supporting Actor, and Kerry Condon in Supporting Actress. While I’m predicting it in Original Screenplay, I don’t have it in any of the “craft” categories like Costume Design. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it pops up in unexpected places like that. The Academy has become more and more international every year, and the two precursor awards that have favored Banshees — The Golden Globes and BAFTA (the British Oscars) — are ones that historically skew more European in their picks. McDonagh has a great track record with four Oscar nominations for past works, including a screenplay nom for In Bruges, which also starred Colin Ferrell and Brendan Gleeson. I loved this film and hope to review it in full as we get closer to Oscar Sunday.
The Fabelmans (Available to buy or rent at home.)
I probably could just put Steven Spielberg’s name here and leave it at that, but the Hollywood legend’s semi-autobiographical film is actually a lot quirkier and more nuanced than one would assume; the film shouldn’t need to ride on a name brand alone. If I factor in that it’s a movie about falling in love with and making movies, this is possibly the easiest pick. The film’s stock with other awards bodies, however, keeps going up and down, so how many nominations it will actually get tomorrow morning — outside of Picture and Director — is still pretty up in the air. I’m predicting Michelle Williams, who plays Spielberg’s mother, to miss because she missed SAG (the actor’s guild) and voters will be confused about whether or not she belongs in Lead or Supporting. Either way, if you’re a fan of Spielberg’s work, this is a must see.
Tár (Available to buy or rent at home.)
The high position Todd Field’s psychological drama/thriller occupies on this list more reflects that it’s almost guaranteed to be nominated rather than its chances to actually win. While its brilliance is undeniable, Tár is a film that many voters, I suspect, will admire more than they enjoy. It’s very intense, the script can get very lofty, especially for non-musicians, and its title character is controversial. Clayton Davis from Variety said that it’s The Power of the Dog Part II; I never would have thought of that, but once he said it, it made so much sense. Many will, in describing this film, say that it’s about “cancel culture,” but that’s a gross oversimplification; I worry that voters who haven’t seen it will write it off as such. Even if not a lot of voters would put this as their favorite, most voters will recognize Cate Blanchett’s career best performance and Todd Field’s sophisticated writing and directing. I hope I’m surprised and this gets in for Sound as well.
Elvis (Streaming on HBOMax.)
Baz Lurhman’s flashy biopic about The King is the opposite of Tár. It’s likely the weakest film on this list, and yet, because its subject matter is so beloved and many enjoy Lurhman’s signature bombast, we’re going to get at least one more chance to hear Austin Butler’s “new voice” (spoiler: it just sounds like his Elvis voice). The attitude towards this film reminds me a lot of Bohemian Rhapsody a few years ago; it’s hard not to get caught up in the music and the magnetism, overlooking flaws in the film. Butler is arresting as Elvis, though; he’s a very reasonable contender in Best Actor. Many Best Picture nominees earn their spot with the sheer number of crafts nominations, and Elvis seems to fit that bill as well.
Top Gun: Maverick (Streaming on Paramount+.)
Take me to the Oscars, or lose me forever. This sequel has no business being as good as it is; it’s a marvel in its ability to cash in nostalgia chips and improve upon the original 1986 film. This is the film that may not win that much in the end, but voters will (and should!) want to acknowledge it as a blockbuster at the top of its game. I don’t think Tom Cruise will make it into Best Actor because, honestly, he’s too cool for The Oscars. I’m predicting Maverick for a slew of other nominations: Cinematography, Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects. So it’s another one of these “it’s getting too many noms to not be in Best Picture” situations. But, more importantly, it has a powerful narrative behind it. This film, some say, single-handedly restored hope in the theatrical experience. Cruise and Paramount held out and waited until after the pandemic to release it, and it made more than 1.4 billion dollars at the box office. Most notably, the Producer’s Guild nominated it, and most of their nominees have a shot at Best Picture. It even got a USC Scriptor nomination. I didn’t even think it would be eligible because the Scriptor is only for adapted screenplays. Then I found out that technically the first film is based on a literary work, an article titled “Top Guns,” which was published in California magazine in 1983. While I don’t think we can get Tom Cruise to parachute into the ceremony, we still might be able to convince Original Song nominee Lady Gaga to repeat her Super Bowl half-time show stunt.
Avatar: The Way of Water (In theaters.)
Full disclosure: I still have not seen this movie. It seems like a fait accompli, like no matter how good or bad this film actually was, we were going to have to acknowledge it at the Oscars anyway. It’s a technical achievement. It’s James Cameron’s life’s work. It’s possibly the most anticipated (or long-awaited) sequel in film history. Are pundits assuming too much about its Oscar chances? Maybe. But I’m not willing to bet against it just yet. And I think that the blockbuster love stops here. Sorry, Wakanda Forever, but the populist spots have already been taken by the big noisy airplanes and the other movie that features an underwater world.
All Quiet on the Western Front (Streaming on Netflix.)
A noticeable trend in recent years is that one nominee from the Best International Feature category gets a nomination nod in Best Picture as well: Drive My Car, Parasite, and Roma. And with more wins to date than expected and an obscene number of BAFTA nominations, this German adaptation of the famous 1929 novel has recently emerged as the best candidate for this year.
The Whale (In theaters.)
The Oscars love an actor transformation, and they love a comeback story. With Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and, more specifically, its star Brendan Fraser, they get both. For most prognosticators, this film was close to getting in but not quite there. But then the PGA (Producer’s Guild of America) nominations came out, and critics gasped at The Whale’s inclusion on that list. Brendan Fraser won Best Actor at the Critic’s Choice Awards, and his heartfelt acceptance speech propelled him into the Best Actor race. (So, if you’re keeping track, that’s a three-way race between Colin Farrell, Austin Butler, and Brendan Fraser.) This is what we call “surging,” folks. Could this be this year’s little movie that could?
Triangle of Sadness (Available to rent or buy at home.)
By far my riskiest pick. Ruben Ostland’s satirical black comedy sounds like The Love Boat meets Lost, yet looks like a modern version of Luis Buñuel’s The Exterminating Angel (1962) or The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie (1972). (Can you tell I’ve only watched the trailer?) It won the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival, and hasn’t had much buzz since. But it feels like one of those sleeper films that’s going to come out of nowhere and confuse everyone on nominations morning. One thing I’ve learned in the past few years is that Oscar predictions need to form a complete puzzle. Never predict one category in a vacuum; consider how all the nominations fit together. Best Picture nominees have to have nominations in several other categories. That logic also works in reverse. So when I realized that I didn’t think Margot Robbie could make Lead Actress and I didn’t think Brad Pitt would make Lead Actor, it dawned on me that Damien Chazelle’s Babylon didn’t have enough to qualify for Best Picture.
Meanwhile, I found that Triangle of Sadness was making it into more categories than I realized: Dolly De Leon in Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Director. Conventional wisdom might say that if All Quiet on the Western Front is the international Best Picture nominee, shouldn’t its director, Edward Berger, get the corresponding Best Director spot? I told you this was risky. My answer — borrowed from Josh Parham of Next Best Picture — is that Berger’s not as well established as Ostland. Triangle of Sadness is an English language film, but Ostland is a Swedish director who fits in the with previous international noms for Pawel Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg. What ultimately clinched this final decision was a point Sophia Ciminello made on the most recent episode of AwardsWatch. She said that Oscar voters love to vote for a film that they can feel good about politically, and that the indictment of class privilege in Triangle of Sadness feels like the kind of self-awareness and self-deprecation that Hollywood might want to flaunt.
In these last two spots, there’s a lot of potential for surprises. Babylon could be the Nightmare Alley of this year and make it in with more technical nominations than I’m expecting. With too few precursor acknowledgments, Women Talking’s campaign seems to have died, with the film’s theatrical release postponed for too long to be on voters’ radars. But it’s so beloved by critics; it might still have a chance. And while I think the popular/mainstream/blockbuster film quota is filled to the brim already, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Glass Onion might still sneak in. And everyone loves Guillermo del Toro and his animated adaptation of Pinocchio so much that this might be one of the years an animated feature gets a spot in Best Picture as well.
But only time will time. Wish me luck tomorrow morning! And who do you think will make the Best Picture ten?
Based on a lot less research and thought (and seeing neither of these movies), I’m going to say Babylon slides in ahead of The Whale. Maybe the Babylon backlash-to-the-backlash is too late...but I don’t like betting against Hollywood nominating another story about itself.
My only other contribution: regardless of Top Gun’s original status as original or adapted, I think the rule is that any sequel has to be nominated in adapted (as an adaptation of the original work/characters). A weird Academy quirk that might be revisited down the road, but I believe that’s still the rule.