The Nominees:
Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST
Troy Kotsur in CODA
Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG
J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Image Credit: Vanity Fair and Indiewire
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Who Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Who Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
If I wanted to be glib, I would say that Troy Kotsur fell out of his chair and changed the course of the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race. When the CODA star found out that he had been nominated for a BAFTA, his charming reaction went viral, and suddenly he began to inch out ahead of The Power of the Dog’s Kodi Smit-McPhee, who had, up until that point, been the clear frontrunner.
Smit-McPhee had been winning critics awards left and right, and his lead seemed fairly cemented early on in the season. Kotsur then won SAG. That in of itself would not have been enough to turn the tide, as pundits suspected that the actor’s guild would favor Kotsur’s heartstring-tugging, tear-jerking performance over Smit-McPhee’s more cold and calculating turn as the quiet young man trying to outfox Benedict Cumberbatch. But Kotsur gave an earnest, funny, and moving acceptance speech that established how long he’s been in the industry and how important a film CODA is for “casting deaf actors as people who happen to be deaf.” The way he thanked Apple’s commitment to the deaf community could only have reminded voters how historic Kotsur’s win would be as the first deaf male actor to get an Oscar. (His co-star, Marlee Matlin was the first deaf actor ever to win in 1987.) Kotsur’s more recent BAFTA and Critic’s Choice awards certainly make the category seem like it’s all sewn up now.
Oscar night is still more of a two-horse race than Best Supporting Actress because Smit-McPhee has won so many critic’s awards, but with the momentum CODA has gained overall, that becomes less and less true with each passing day. I hear pundits use the phrase “spread the wealth” all the time because voters usually want to make sure all the films they like get an Oscar for something. So if CODA doesn’t win Best Picture, but lots of people love it, where will the love for it manifest? Best Supporting Actor seems like an easy category to ensure CODA doesn’t go home empty-handed. There’s a lot of buzz around CODA’s contention in the Adapted Screenplay category, and there are a fair number of pundits going out on a limb to say that despite stats to the contrary, CODA could go all the way to Best Picture. Kotsur’s win would be the most likely by far, and could be where the love-fest ends.
Image Credit: NPR
Kotsur’s probable win will be a big step for representation in Hollywood. What’s more, his performance as a deaf fisherman trying to understand his hearing daughter’s love for singing is very deserving. He’s funny, ornery, and caring all at once. His performance might be the secret heart of the film because his character changes and grows the most. There’s one scene he has with Emilia Jones — those who have seen the film know what I’m talking about — that made me ball my eyes out because he plays a beautiful moment so sincerely. This would be a no-brainer Oscar clip to show.
Image Credit: Indiewire
My personal pick in this category, though, is Kodi Smit-McPhee. Playing a character whose quiet reserve is actively a part of the story, he has the less flashy and arguably more challenging role. He plays Peter with all the unconventional mannerisms that make him stand out as an outcast amongst the stereotypically aggressive males dominating the frontier. At the same time, he builds a meticulousness and confidence into the character that makes the film’s climax 100% believable. If, in the moment where everything clicks into place for the viewer, his actions and motivations do not make sense, The Power of the Dog falls apart.