Oscars Spotlight: Actor in a Leading Role
Why I predict (and hope) that Will Smith finally wins an Oscar.
The Nominees:
Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS
Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK...BOOM!
Will Smith in KING RICHARD
Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Image Credit: IndieWire
Who Will Win: Will Smith
Who Could Win: Andrew Garfield or Benedict Cumberbatch
Who Should Win: Will Smith
In the acting categories, it’s not uncommon for a predicted winner to be anointed absurdly early and then just continue as the frontrunner all the way to Oscar Sunday. The most recent example I can think of is the 2019-2020 season. Renee Zellweger attended the Telluride Film Festival at the end of August and glad-handled her way to Oscar buzz. From that point on, pundits kept saying, “I guess it’s just Renee Zellweger.” No one really liked the movie, Judy, and yet Zellweger’s ability to transform into Judy Garland AND not flub up her campaign meant that, sure enough, she won the prize in February. No build-up, no momentum. She just tortoise-ed her way to victory.
We’ve seen a very similar trajectory for Will Smith this season. Critics recognized his performance early on, he laid low for most of the season until the first televised awards show, SAG. He gave a great speech there, wisely making it more about his co-stars and the Williams sisters than himself. Multiple pundits have said “I’m going to keep predicting him until he loses.” Well, Smith keeps winning and keeps giving solid speeches. As far as I can tell, he hasn’t missed a beat. He even surprised pundits with a BAFTA (the British Oscars) win, which many assumed would go to rival nominee Benedict Cumberbatch because he’s a British actor.
I would not compare Will Smith to Renee Zellweger in how deserving they are, though. In 2020, there were far more compelling performances competing (my vote would have gone to Saoirse Ronan in Little Women). Will Smith, on the hand, is just as if not more deserving than the other two contenders in this category: Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield.
Image Credit: Entertainment Weekly
To be very clear, I LOVE Cumberbatch and Garfield as actors. They’re able to tackle serious drama, indie films, and big blockbuster genre films. (I mean, one is Dr. Strange and the other Spider-Man.) And they are phenomenal in The Power of the Dog and Tick, Tick…Boom!, two of my favorite movies from the last year. These performances might even be career bests as well. Phil is a terrifying bully, and yet Cumberbatch plays him with such complexity and nuance that I couldn’t help but empathize with him. And Garfield captures the manic, head-in-the-clouds energy that I imagine a creative genius like Jonathan Larson would have. (AND he can sing!) If Will Smith loses to either one of them, I may be disappointed for him, but I’m certainly not mad.
I’m much higher on King Richard in general than most critics, and I’m sure that influences my endorsement of a Will Smith win to a degree. Stellar performances across the board. Editing that keeps the energy and tension up. A script that avoids the cradle-to-grave clichés. Critics (including me) spend so much time complaining about bad biopics; it seems weird to me that when we come across one that is well-executed, we aren’t more appreciative of it.
Is Will Smith’s portrayal of boundary-breaking tennis dad Richard Williams stereotypical Oscar bait? Absolutely. He’s doing a voice and hunching over. He has several big booming, inspirational monologues. He’s prideful yet willing to show emotional pain. But it works. He’s amazing. Again, the Academy has given Oscars for similar roles that were not as well-executed.
What’s more, Will Smith does not yet have an Oscar, which gives his campaign a “now or never” kind of urgency. While sometimes the “they’re due” argument annoyingly rewards the wrong person at the wrong time, I’m okay with it if the performance is, in of itself, deserving. And it is!
Image Credit: Deadline
In terms of upsets, I’d place Andrew Garfield slightly ahead of Benedict Cumberbatch, mostly because he didn’t win where expected at BAFTA, as I mentioned earlier. And while both their characters have their share of flaws, Jonathan Larson is a beloved real-life figure and Phil from The Power of the Dog is, in a lot of ways, the villain of that film.
The Power of the Dog in general seems to be losing steam, especially after CODA won at the PGAs (producer’s guild) last night. (Film Twitter is in a tizzy over this. I’m really glad I waited before writing a Best Picture prediction post.) There’s still a lot of love out there for Tick, Tick…Boom!, and a lot of folks were disappointed it didn’t make it into the Best Picture 10. If this is the only place voters can voice that enthusiasm, a Garfield upset is possible. Not likely, but possible.