The Oscars are this Sunday! To prepare for the big night, my friends Greg Cass, P.T. McNiff, and I share our predictions for the two musical categories.
Best Score
Greg’s Short Take:
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon
This is the best way to spread the wealth and honor Babylon, but beyond that, it’s an absolutely worthy winner with propulsive energy that does heavy lifting across a range of tones within the film.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Babylon
There’s some respect for Justin Hurwitz’s score for Babylon, but not a lot of love for the film itself. If Everything Everywhere All At Once is in for a sweep, then Son Lux may upset. My current prediction — though I’m not confident — is that this category will be part of All Quiet’s over-performance.
Jen’s Long Take:
This race could go a lot of different ways. On the one hand, there’s a strong case to be made for a spread the wealth vote for Babylon, as Greg notes. But I already have Babylon winning in Production Design right now, and without a Best Picture nomination, it would be less likely to pull off two spread the wealth wins. Plus, Hurwitz started the season off strong by winning The Golden Globe, but has been striking out ever since.
I’m predicting Volker Bertelmann’s score for All Quiet on the Western Front instead, ever since I heard Dan Bayer on Next Best Picture Podcast call it “Hans Zimmer light.” The three-note refrain that echoes throughout the film might stick in voters’ minds, despite not being the type of score that historically wins in this category. But I’m prepared for an Everything Everywhere upset, as I am in most categories, if we’re in for a sweep.
I’m weak to anything remotely jazzy or old time, so Babylon is actually my personal pick. It is the score I’d be most likely to listen to on its own. I’m a little sad that John Williams isn’t really even in the conversation at this point; though, with 53 nominations and 5 wins, he will be perfectly fine without another Oscar. And I get it; while the score for The Fabelmans worked in the movie, it’s not particularly memorable relative to other Williams scores.
Best Original Song
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
(Should have been nominated: “new body rhumba” from White Noise)
And the crowds demanded: “give RRR all the awards!” Awkwardly, the Academy responded with, “uh, well, there’s just the one, actually…” And the crowds accepted that and the Academy looked upon it and said, lo, it was good. (Also: please end Diane Warren’s pain!)
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
In a category dominated by end credit songs, “Naatu Naatu” stands out as an energetic, relentlessly entertaining song that actually plays a part in the story of its film. Plus, all the love it might have gotten in International Feature had it been nominated will redirect here. I know you’re too busy, Ram Charan, but please come to the Oscars so we can all bask in your glow.
P.T.’s Long Take:
Continuing confessions of being a bad movie goer: I have yet to watch RRR. I’ve heard nothing but great things, both as its own cinematic experience and also as an entryway into Indian films. There were even some hoping for nominations for the movie and its director, S. S. Rajamouli. However, those didn’t happen — and thanks to India’s selection of something else as its International Feature Film submission, Best Song ended up the movie’s only nomination. It has been the clear front-runner ever since, with fans of the film looking forward to its victory almost as much as they are looking forward to the on-stage performance of the song. The newly expanded and internationally-minded Academy surely will be happy to use this as an acknowledgement of India’s vibrant Hindi and Telugu cinema industries.
This victory lap is made easier by the fact that none of the other nominees make a strong case for themselves. The Rihanna-led song “Lift Me Up” did not leave much of a footprint, not even meriting a passing reference in her recent Super Bowl Halftime Show performance. Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” hit the right cheesy notes in Top Gun: Maverick but would only be a real contender here if Gaga hadn’t recently won for the superior “Shallow.” “This Is A Life” has an appealing indie/experimental rock pedigree, coming from Son Lux, Mitski, and David Byrne — but with EEAAO looking to take so many other categories, it feels like voters will see this as a place to spread the love. (Though, again, if it does win here, that’s an indicator of a massive run for the film.)
As for the obligatory Diane Warren song…look, I want her to win an award. In retrospect, we all would have been happier if she had taken a trophy home in either 1998 or 2015. But instead, here we are, with her staring down the barrel of another almost-surely-ending-up-in-fifth-place “contender.” Many had hoped that the Academy giving her an honorary award this year would stop the music branch from setting her up to be Susan Lucci-ed year after year. Alas.
(Lots of possible other songs that could have taken this fifth spot; my choice would have been LCD Soundsystem’s “new body rhumba,” the song from the closing dance number of Noah Baumbach’s White Noise. The adaptation of the novel had more parts that didn’t work for me than those that did, but the closing moments were a highlight — I would have liked seeing it in the mix.)