The Oscars are this Sunday! To prepare for the big night, my colleague, friend, and fellow film history nerd P.T. McNiff and I share our predictions for the seven crafts categories.
Best Costume Design
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
(Should have been nominated: The Woman King)
It’s good to be the King: iconic looks and nostalgic decades (not to mention a “well, we have to make sure we definitely honor this movie” motivation) help carry Elvis to a win here, even if the variety of characters and timelines in EEAAO might be better rewarded.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This branch typically never awards contemporary designs, so Everything Everywhere doesn’t have much of a shot unless we’re really doing the full sweep. They do, however, favor elaborate period films, and Elvis spans multiple decades. PLUS, Catherine Martin made 90 costumes from scratch for Austin Butler alone. Ruth Carter’s designs still stick with me long after I left Wakanda, though.
Image Credit: Vogue
P.T.’s Long Take:
Hmmm, of all categories here, I think I feel the least qualified to comment on costume design? Everyone looked great and I just hope they all have fun!
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris is by all accounts an enjoyable movie where clothes and fashion design take center stage — hard to be too upset about it getting its single nomination here. (Though a little easier when one thinks about the costumes of The Woman King and how that might have deserved a spot.)
This is one of the rare categories where Everything Everywhere All At Once is not a frontrunner, even though I would personally cast my vote for the multiversal work done in this field. If it does pick up this award, then start your engines: the rout is on.
It’s hard to ever bet against Ruth Carter, but if Angela Bassett can’t even do the thing, then it’s hard to see much support here for a movie that, after some distance, many people seem to have put in the “solid but overlong Marvel movie” box. That said, Carter won the Critics’ Choice Award, and it’s doubtful anyone would think it a travesty if she got another Oscar — so she’s still in the running.
Babylon is a movie I didn’t really vibe with but that had such a level of technical achievement that it clearly should get something. I had written up a whole defense of why costume would be the best place for that before realizing it was still the front-runner in Production Design — which is a similarly understandable category for it to win. Especially since I don’t think Mary Zophres can do what Ruth Carter can’t, which is topple Catherine Martin for her work on Elvis. Sure, she got to tap into iconic looks from one of the most famous celebrities of the 20th century, not to mention channel fashion choices from the 1950s through the early 1970s, decades that ooze nostalgia. But she also has her own history on her side: every Oscar won from a Baz Luhrmann movie has gone to his wife for her costume and production design. While she may not duplicate the latter, the former seems likely to happen again.
Best Production Design
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
(Should have been nominated: Three Thousand Years Of Longing)
Covering the sprawling sets, shoots, and parties of early Hollywood, Babylon has been in the driver’s seat for this award all season. I support it being recognized here, but would consider giving it to the corralling of fantastical worlds and almost-as-fantastical special effects in the second Avatar movie.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
I originally had Elvis in here because Catherine Martin and crew built all their locations from the ground up due to covid restrictions. That’s a powerful behind-the-scenes narrative. But this is the one category where even voters who don’t like the film can acknowledge the technical achievement that is Babylon.
Image Credit: LA Times
P.T.’s Long Take:
Ultimately, this category is the inverse of Best Costume Design; here, Babylon is the clear front-runner with Elvis lurking as a potential upset. It makes sense that this would be the place where Babylon would get some recognition — while the movie under-performed both at the box office and in the wider nominations, the technical abilities on display in its centerpiece sections cannot be denied. There were breathtaking moments of design and vision, from the opening party to “the first day on set,” and the attempt to catch the light while Brad Pitt meets a woman over a roiling battlefield (which now that I think of it may actually also be part of the first day on set…see, the actual story of the movie wasn’t a strong suit for me). While Babylon has taken almost all the precursors, Elvis won the most recent one (from the Set Decorators Society of America). If there is momentum to reward Elvis more deeply than one or two categories, then perhaps it has a chance here.
To carry forward the Costume Design parallels, the third party lurking here isn’t the esteemed Ruth Carter and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; instead, it is the potential crafts juggernaut of All Quiet On The Western Front. It’s not likely, as, once again, even BAFTA skipped it in favor of the favorite Babylon. But if there is a surge for All Quiet…, this statue could be part of it.
I would be tempted to give some love to Babylon, as the art direction was indeed exceptional. Or to the somehow-about-to-be-shut-out The Fabelmans, just so it gets something on the board. But I think my pick would be to reward an even more technically demanding production design job, which is setting up the worlds of Pandora in Avatar: The Way of Water. Maybe this is me having Big Blockbuster Brain, but the fantasy settings of that movie feel like such an achievement, and the film should be honored beyond its one guaranteed win (more to come on that).
However, if I could re-write the story entirely, I would have made sure that Three Thousand Years of Longing would get nominated. Hello, hi, yes, it’s me: I’m the guy who loved George Miller’s follow-up to Fury Road. The meditations on narratives, storytelling, fairy tales, and their place in the modern world really connected with me, due in no small part to the ways the different worlds are depicted. If it were on the list, it just might get my overall vote as well.
Best Visual Effects
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
The lock of all locks. This is the most obvious and deserving place to reward the third-highest-grossing movie of all time. It is steamrolling through all precursors. Cameron’s crew has this sewn up and deservedly so.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
No contest. The distinguishing feature of James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is its advanced visual effects. Even if you have mixed feelings about the story, like I do, it’s hard not to lose yourself in the stunning visuals.
Image Credit: Vanity Fair
P.T.’s Long Take:
There is no long take; it’s a done deal. You know all you need to know.
…
…
OK, OK: there is the slightest chance that the love for All Quiet On The Western Front is so strong (and the assumption that Way of Water will win anyway is equally strong) that it takes the award here. But the advances in technology and the successful implementation of it in the latest Avatar really make that seem impossible – and that it would be one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history.
How strong is the support for the technology? Well, Avatar TWOW was nominated 14 times at the Visual Effects Society Awards this year. It got nine wins…with the five nominations that didn’t result in wins lost to other parts of the Avatar crew. The specifics of the awards (from Outstanding Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature and Compositing and Lighting to Practical Effects and Emerging Technology) show the breadth of what the Avatar team brings to the table as well as the depth of respect the industry has for it. And, again, not for nothing: the movie is now the third-highest-grossing film of all time at the worldwide box office. If folks want to make sure Maverick gets recognized for getting people back in the theaters, they’re gonna want to do the same here.
At this point, with TWOW only lined up for this single award, the biggest question here is whether this is actually a The Two Towers situation where the second movie is relatively under-rewarded because the Academy is primed to shower an auteur’s franchise with maximum awards if the initial trilogy sticks the landing. I hesitate to say that Avatar, for all its positives, can hold a candle to Peter Jackson’s The Lord Of The Rings — but the parallels are interesting to consider. (Or maybe they aren’t, I don’t know – it’s hard to fill out a Long Take when everyone else is just happy to be nominated.)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: The Whale
Should Win: Elvis
It’s the Battle of the Fat Suits! The biggest coin-flip of the craft categories, with two movies appearing to have an equal shot of winning. This award may be intrinsically linked to the Best Actor race. In Long Take tradition, I’m moving the movie I want to win to “should” to avoid disappointment if the coin lands the other way.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: The Batman
But, P.T., Elvis has a good shot here! I’m tying my prediction to Best Actor. I think that if Elvis wins here, Austin Butler will win Best Actor. And if The Whale wins here, then Brendan Fraser will win Best Actor. It’s a close race, but right now Austin Butler has the edge. If we’re already picking based on heavy use of eye makeup or prosthetics, though, I would vote for The Batman because Robert Pattinson’s raccoon eyes visually defines his Batman and Colin Farrell disappeared into The Penguin.
Image Credit: IndieWire
P.T.’s Long Take:
Poor Colin Farrell — left behind in the Best Actor race for his work in Banshees and left behind here for his fat suit in The Batman. That movie and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever got the “superhero blockbuster with some critical praise” nominations, and they should feel proud of that as the conversation immediately blows past them.
All Quiet On The Western Front doesn’t have any particularly flashy hair or makeup moments, but gritty war movies always offer opportunities for solid craftsmanship in this field. There have been no indications in the precursors that it would take the trophy here — this was one of the movie’s rare BAFTA losses. If its name gets called, an All Quiet… run is on to an unsettling degree.
The real conversation is the same as the Best Actor one: The Whale versus Elvis. I will admit to not having seen The Whale (and probably never will! Sorry, I’m a bad Oscar commentator/follower, but there’s always at least one dour-looking movie I never catch up with, and baby, this one fits that bill). As Jen and Antonio discussed previously, there has been a correlation between makeup and a major acting award. I’m thinking of it from a different perspective: given the 50/50 chances of this category, with one movie that is almost surely going to win other awards, voters may feel like this is the place to give something to The Whale…even those who don’t pull the lever for Fraser.
That said, I would prefer the award go to Elvis, if for no other reason than it would at least feel like “& Hairstyling” got a little bit of a shout. Sure, Col. Tom and late-stage Elvis need to have some weight added on…but the King’s coif is almost as much a signature style as any of his moves. Precursors are more recently trending towards Elvis, so I just may get my wish.
Best Cinematography
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: All Quiet On The Western Front
Should Win: Elvis
(Should have been nominated: Nope)
Reward for an upstart movie with a batch of craft nominations will coalesce here — the battle scene choreography and quiet haunted forests of All Quiet… will take home the award. I would instead vote for the energy of (and the history that comes with) an Elvis win.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Nominated: The Batman and Top Gun: Maverick
This past weekend, Elvis’ Mandy Walker was the first female DP to win ASC (the guild), but All Quiet the Western Front wasn’t nominated, which means we don’t know who would win when they go head to head on Oscars night. At this point I may be overestimating All Quiet’s success, but ultimately I think voters will think of the sweeping war torn landscapes before they think of Graceland.
Image Credit: Vanity Fair
P.T.’s Long Take:
When the “least deserving” nominee in the category is Roger Deakins, you have a solid collection here. Deakins, formerly the Diane Warren of Cinematography, garners understandable support for his work, but Empire of Light is ultimately a slight movie. It was an honor just to be nominated…and to have dodged a “This Had Oscar Buzz” episode.
I went into Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths assuming I would feel similarly — but Darius Khondji’s work there is masterful. The movie may not ultimately work (it takes the most Fellini-esque sequences of 8 1/2, mixes it with the last 20 minutes of All That Jazz, douses it in Iñárritu's personal blend of ego and pretension (in a good way!), and says “what if a two-and-a-half-hour dream sequence?”), but the images are arresting. A worthy nominee, and a movie I considered advocating for as a potential winner…but getting the nom is reward enough.
I forget where I saw this online (always cite your sources, kids), but someone did note that the sheer number of TAR screenshots shared on the internet the last few months is a testament to the success of Florian Hoffmeister’s work there. But the final fight here will be the one we see across a few craft categories — which makes sense, as these are the two movies leading the below-the-line nominations with six apiece.
After adding cinematography to its BAFTA stash, All Quiet On The Western Front has some precursor momentum. More than that, it is a movie that people clearly want to reward down here below the line. It is also a front-runner in Score (and seems to be a lock for International Feature and has a shout at Adapted Screenplay), but this seems like the another likely category for votes to coalesce — the film balances the scope of the Great War with personal, emotion-driven moments. Given that its rival has some clearer categories to take, I think voters end up giving the prize to James Friend. (I say that as if it’s a unique conclusion I have drawn; the odds-makers all have it in the lead.)
While I don’t think that the win would be undeserving, I would cast my vote for its rival, Elvis. Like any Baz Luhrmann joint, the visual flair of the images adds to the film’s momentum. Whatever flaws the movie may have, the dazzling visuals are not among them. More than the quality on screen would be the history of the win: Mandy Walker is, somehow, only the third woman ever nominated in Cinematography, and her win would be the first victory for a woman in the category. The American Society of Cinematographers recently gave her the nod (though, it should be noted, All Quiet… wasn’t nominated there), so there is some hope. With two movies of relatively equal quality in my mind, I’d lean towards the inclusive pick.
(As for who should have been nominated: both Nope and Top Gun: Maverick had expectations they could compete in this field. With all love for Sir Roger, I would gladly bump Empire Of Light for one of them. And to begin a trend here, I would lean towards Nope, an excellent movie about filmmaking (and with a cinematographer character!) — it deserved recognition and this would be one of the best places for it.)
Best Film Editing
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Crafting the jumps and twists through a multiverse while keeping the narrative emotionally rooted will carry EEAAO to victory. It is only because of all the other places that movie will win that I suggest giving this award to a movie that did such a good job making planes go zoom.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
The strong stat supporting a tethering of Editing and Sound has me feel very torn. I’m fairly confident that Top Gun will win Sound, which means it should also win Editing. But Everything Everywhere won ACE (the guild) and has more noticeable editing with all its multiverse jumps.
Image Credit: IndieWire
P.T.’s Long Take:
The Banshees of Inisherin and TAR could have had a chance here if either of them were the runaway favorites of the year — and, you know, I would be ok with either of those timelines. But given that they are not, they are too small, staid, and calm to compete with the top contenders here. Heck, even Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis doesn’t have the frenetic energy to compete, and that’s saying something.
According to the website AwardsWatch, the biggest award correlation in the last decade has been the winners of Editing and Sound (or one of the Sound categories, back when there were two) — there has been overlap every year since 2013, regardless of what the precursors have said. If this were to hold true, Top Gun: Maverick would be the likely beneficiary — its strongest challenger in each category (EEAAO here and All Quiet… in Sound) is not nominated in the other one. I also could see a sequence where, given that Maverick lost out on a cinematography nomination, voters see this category as the place to reward the movie for having Tom Cruise and his fellow pilots up in the air, strafing bogeys and buzzing towers. And by voters, I partially mean me.
Still, I think it’s unlikely that voters will decide that EEAAO is the best movie of the year and not also think it deserves to be commended for the work editing together the different narrative and timeline pieces. And of course I will not be upset if it wins here – I go back and forth on whether I actually want to have it take both “will” and “should” here. I will note: just as a win in other categories may signal a EEAAO rout, a loss here may show that the front-runner is weaker than we could have expected.
Best Sound
P.T.’s Short Take:
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
(Should have been nominated: Nope)
We all know that planes go zoom; what this award presupposes is: maybe they also go vroom? This category has seemed to be Maverick’s to lose for a while; I think it holds on despite surging challenges from the craft-y duo of Elvis and All Quiet On The Western Front.
Jen’s Short Take:
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
The roaring sounds of jet engines throughout Top Gun: Maverick make this an easy choice. I’m worried that All Quiet is a possible spoiler here because we haven’t seen a traditional war film enter the fray since Sound Mixing and Sound Editing collapsed into one sound category. Today I asked Matt Neglia over at Next Best Picture, and he said he’s not stressed with splitting Sound and Editing. So I shouldn’t be either. Right? RIGHT?!?
Image Credit: Collider
P.T.’s Long Take:
As noted earlier, the Sound category (or categories before 2020) tend to line up with Film Editing. While that correlation may not hold up this year, it does speak to how Academy voters think of sound as something that helps hold a movie together, connecting disparate elements for the viewer. There could have been a timeline where either The Batman or Avatar: Way of Water had a stranglehold on these kind of craft awards, letting the Academy focus on pushing up one particular blockbuster movie unlikely to get any above-the-line love. But this is not that timeline.
As has been the case throughout the craft categories, both Elvis and All Quiet On The Western Front have a shot — the latter more than the former, even though Elvis did get a “music editing” award from the Motion Picture Sound Editors. The two interrelated questions for me in figuring out these awards: how extensive is the All Quiet… momentum and where will that be shown? If the answer is “quite extensive,” this is an easy additional category it could poach (more so than Production Design or Makeup & Hairstyling).
Still, it seems this has been the place where the Top Gun: Maverick love has consolidated. While not the Tom Cruise best actor run or the dark-horse, third-place-on-all-the-preferential-ballots best picture surge, this would still be a trophy for the movie that, as many have said, “saved movie theaters.” And a 36-years-later legacyquel getting to call itself “Academy Award Winning” is pretty darn impressive. Oh, and the sound work in it is also excellent — don’t let me undervalue that.
(Similar to the cinematography category, I think this is also a place where Nope should have gotten some recognition. No disrespect to The Batman, which I enjoyed, but I would have kicked that out to have Jordan Peele’s movie represented.)