The Oscars are less than 10 days away. To prepare for the big night, my friend, colleague, and fellow Oscar nerd Antonio Elefano and I share our predictions for each of the eight biggest categories.
The Short Takes:
Antonio
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should Win: Kerry Condon
I thought this was going to Angela Bassett until the Screen Actors Guild. Now, I think it’s Jamie Lee Curtis’s to lose. Both would be in recognition for their amazing careers. Hong Chau and Kerry Condon, however, were the best parts of their films, and I'd give the nod to the better-written character in the better movie: Condon.
Jen
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu
Jamie Lee Curtis will likely benefit from EEAAO’s momentum and her consistent championing of the film. Her younger co-star, Stephanie Hsu, will have to wait her turn, but I think her wide-ranging performance is more deserving.
Image Credit: IndieWire
The Long Take:
Antonio:
This is the strongest performance category of the four (and it didn’t even have room for my personal favorite of the year, Dolly DeLeon in Triangle of Sadness). Curtis and Hsu were hilarious and heartbreaking in Everything Everywhere. The always-regal Angela Bassett classed up the popcorn eulogy of Wakanda Forever. Either Curtis or Bassett will take home a career Oscar this year (probably Curtis), and I have no problem with either. But Hong Chau, who is always the best performer in her movies (including this year’s The Menu), was, by far, the best part of The Whale. And Kerry Condon was the perfect no-nonsense sister opposite Colin Farrell’s dim bulb in The Banshees of Inisherin. Condon won the BAFTA and probably should win here based on performance alone. She’s the likeliest candidate for an upset of one of the veterans.
Jen:
What a wild ride this category has been! I agree that this is a three-way race between the precursor winners: Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon, and Jamie Lee Curtis. But I think that SAG said more about the overwhelming support for Everything Everywhere All at Once more than any one category. So I’m going to bet big on Jamie Lee Curtis here, thinking she’ll get swept up in a big night for her film, which clearly has the most passion behind it at this point. Across multiple podcasts, I’ve heard reporters who were in the room and pundits watching the telecast at home say that when Jamie Lee Curtis gave her “I’m an actor” intro at the top of the show, the crowd went wild. And that enthusiasm for her never let up. While I was elated that Stephanie Hsu got nominated alongside her, I actually prefer her performance and would vote for her on my ballot. Her character, Jobu Tupaki, is so pivotal for the film overall; the story arguably doesn’t work without her at the chewy bagel center. Her ability to one moment play an outlandish nihilistic supervillain and at the drop of the hat switch to a relatable, wounded daughter is what propels her to the top of my list. But, she’s new to the awards scene, so I understand that she doesn’t have a shot and will have to wait until next time.
Listen to the audio recording of our full conversation about this and seven other major Oscar categories here.
I read all the content this morning and can't wait to see which of you is right! -- Great stuff, as always <3