The Oscars are less than 10 days away. To prepare for the big night, my friend, colleague, and fellow Oscar nerd Antonio Elefano and I share our predictions for each of the eight biggest categories.
The Short Takes:
Antonio
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
As much as I’d love to see the wealth spread with a dark horse Tar victory, the trophy will go and should go to Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Jen
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
This was my favorite movie of the year, so I’m pinching myself that we’re actually here, over a year after EEAAO hit theaters. It has been a contender that entire time, and after a sweep at SAG, I can feel the same momentum that CODA had around this point in the race.
Image Credit: NPR
The Long Take:
Antonio:
The Fabelmans and Elvis don’t belong in this cohort, but given the mandatory ten nominees, I think eight worthy entries is actually pretty good. All Quiet in the Western Front, as impressive and timely as it is, is in the end: prestige horror. The Banshees of Inisherin was a scene-by-scene delight, but the lowest stakes movie in the category. I could see Top Gun: Maverick pulling off an upset (and that would be kind of thrilling), but I don’t think Oscar voters care (or should care) about think pieces regarding the award’s broader relevance. This is a craft award given by people in the craft—gargantuan box office will have to be its consolation.
Speaking of box office, Avatar: the Way of Water was a technical marvel that created another beautiful new world, but it has a few movies left for us all to see whether James Cameron can stick the landing, Return of the King-style. Triangle of Sadness was a mean, less-than-lean satire, and the nomination alone was a win. Women Talking was again the best play I saw on either the stage or the screen this year, but at the end of the day, the best cinema of the year comes down to Everything Everywhere and Tar.
The former, I think, was the better overall movie—with everything aligning from screenplay to acting to directing and editing. Tar was the messier, harder movie to make well and harder for its audience to watch. I’d be shocked and delighted if the critics’ darling took it, but I’ll be smiling just as wide to see Everything Everywhere take the top prize.
Jen:
And I’ll be smiling right there alongside you, Antonio!
The Daniels winning DGA (the director’s guild) was a step towards Best Picture frontrunner status. Then BAFTA (the British Oscars) was a step back because the film only won Editing there. Once EEAAO proved it could win PGA (the producers’ guild), which is the only other precursor award that also uses a preferential ballot (a system in which voters rank all nominees from most to least favorite), pundits started to say that this is really happening. Add in the record-breaking SAG (the actor’s guild) wins – it’s now the most awarded film in the history of SAG – and this weird little film that could is simply, as Antonio has said, unstoppable.
More importantly, there’s no clear runner-up to chase after it. All Quiet on the Western Front is really the closest we have to an upset candidate at this point, and with International Feature a surefire win, it’s unclear if voters would allow it to take Best Picture. It’s no Parasite, after all. It has a powerful anti-war message and is a technical achievement, but are voters really in love with it enough to put their passion behind it in Best Picture? I don’t think so.
The preferential ballot does open it up for a film that is middle of the pack – so not #1 on voters’ lists but in the top tier – to ninja in. Top Gun: Maverick is probably the best bet for this, but after it couldn’t win at PGA, the most likely guild to reward a box office success, that’s looking less likely. Part of me doesn’t want to be too overconfident in EEAAO’s chances. At the same time (all at once, even?), they’re hard to deny.
Listen to the audio recording of our full conversation about this and seven other major Oscar categories here.