The Oscars are less than 10 days away. To prepare for the big night, my friend, colleague, and fellow Oscar nerd Antonio Elefano and I share our predictions for each of the eight biggest categories.
The Short Takes:
Antonio
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tar
I love all the layers (and tender core) of Everything Everywhere, but in the end, I prefer the rigor and sharp edges of Tar. That said, I think the delicious dialogue of Banshees will prevail.
Jen
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Voters will classify Martin McDonagh as a writer more than a director, and a “spread the wealth” vote for Banshees will land here. I don’t blame them; McDonough delicately weaves a dialectic on art and life into a series of grounded yet memorable conversations.
Image Credit: Vanity Fair
Antonio:
As much as I love Tony Kushner, the sentimental, ploddingly-paced Fabelmans is the runt of this litter. Banshees is my favorite Martin McDonagh screenplay (I loathed Three Billboards over Ebbing, Missouri), and it probably will win for its acid dialogue alone. The story, though, left me a bit cold in the end. Triangle of Sadness was audacious and a lot of fun, but for me this comes down to the well-orchestrated madness of Everything Everywhere and the icy elegance of Tar. Tar is the movie that remains with me and that I’m most likely to rewatch ten years from now. I’d love to see the brilliant Todd Field win his first Oscar.
Jen:
I repeat: I also love Tar. Lydia Tar’s monologues especially reflect some of the best writing of the year; I’m so easily seduced by her assertion of intellectual dominance in them, which then makes the film’s portrayal of her cult of genius and problematic behavior all the more interesting. (See my nominations predictions post, but this is not a film about cancel culture; it’s way more complicated and interesting than that.)
However, I’m an easy mark for McDonagh’s style of writing. And this is one of those times where I would be a pretty basic Academy voter, thinking this is the best place to honor The Banshees of Inisherin. If I’m predicting that no one from that film’s cast will win any of the acting awards, then it has to win here. It won’t be one of the Best Picture nominees shut out on the night. At the same time, the film in general has been gradually underperforming over the course of the season. I think a lone screenplay win makes sense as a part of my broader Oscars puzzle.
Listen to the audio recording of our full conversation about this and seven other major Oscar categories here.