The Oscars are less than 10 days away. To prepare for the big night, my friend, colleague, and fellow Oscar nerd Antonio Elefano and I share our predictions for each of the eight biggest categories.
The Short Takes:
Antonio
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Women Talking
This was a year of stagey cinema (Banshees, The Whale, Causeway, Women Talking). My favorite of the lot was Women Talking, an important conversation that didn't feel at all like the lecture I feared it would be but like a thrilling and vital debate led by some of the world's finest actresses.
Jen
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Living
After a strong season, All Quiet will sneak into places we don’t expect, and adaptations of literary works usually have an edge here anyway. Living took me by surprise with its complexity and lyricism.
Image Credit: Entertainment Weekly
The Long Take:
Antonio:
Top Gun: Maverick was a fine movie but I’m not sure anyone walked out of it talking about the screenplay. The script for Glass Onion, good fun and all it needed to be, is a lightweight compared to the competition. All Quiet on the Western Front was undoubtedly powerful, but like all anti-war war movies, it is essentially a horror film, more reliant on sturdy directing and memorable set pieces than carefully crafted story or dialogue. Living lives up to its literary pedigree and had me bawling by its last frame. But Women Talking, despite a high degree of difficulty, was an absolute triumph for the multi-talented Sarah Polley. How many times do you watch a movie and say, “I wish they’d adapt this for the stage”?
Jen:
Women Talking has been the presumed winner all season, and I think pundits are taking it as too much of a given. I am embarrassed to say that I haven’t actually seen it yet (though I have plans to this weekend!), and maybe that’s why I’m more inclined to think people are overestimating its chances. I’m just not confident that enough people have seen this film to vote for it, and it has had the opposite of a campaign boost because the theatrical release of the film was delayed until the end of January, and it’s only just now become available to watch at home. Its ability to still get a Best Picture nomination shocked pundits, and I think that’s as far as it goes, unfortunately. There hasn’t been anything I’ve seen since nomination day that indicates there’s any love for this film outside of critics.
Netflix’s All Quiet on the Western Front, on the other hand, has done nothing but surprise critics and pundits with its continued success. It won seven BAFTAS, including Best Film. It has nine Oscar nominations. When I look for categories where this will unexpectedly upset, this is the most likely one because it’s an adaptation of a famous classic novel.
At the risk of being a traitor to my English literature PhD, I’d say that Ishiguro’s Living is actually a bigger adaptation achievement, because it’s one of the greatest British authors of the century adapting an Akira Kurosawa film that impacted him as a child. When I originally heard that this was a remake of a Kurosawa film (which I misspoke about during our recorded conversation, mistakenly saying that this was a remake of an adaptation of an Ishiguro novel – apologies for that!) I was intrigued but very skeptical. What would we gain from remaking a film by one of the world’s greatest filmmakers? And then, when I actually saw it during The Sundance Film Festival, I was floored by how much I loved Living. But, who knows? Maybe I change my mind once I see Women Talking.
Listen to the audio recording of our full conversation about this and seven other major Oscar categories here.