The Oscars are less than 10 days away. To prepare for the big night, my friend, colleague, and fellow Oscar nerd Antonio Elefano and I share our predictions for each of the eight biggest categories.
The Short Takes:
Antonio
Will Win: Brendan Fraser
Should Win: Bill Nighy or Paul Mescal
In a weak year for leading actors, I favor the lovely, subtle work of Nighy and Mescal. But the trophy is probably going to Fraser and the wild histrionics of The Whale.
Jen
Will Win: Austin Butler
Should Win: Colin Farrell
This could easily go to Brendan Fraser, but I think a Best Picture nom for Elvis and the same musical biopic love that paved the way for Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody will pave the way for Austin “The Voice” Butler here.
Image Credit: The New Yorker
The Long Take:
Antonio:
Three actors can probably win this, and none of them are my favorites in the category. Brendan Fraser did the best any actor could underneath all the prosthetics of The Whale, but that movie was more sentimental than The Fabelmans. The performance was so big, actual whales were like, “That’s a little much.” Austin Butler lent grit and gravitas to Elvis, but the film was so disjointed that it was hard to piece together a coherent character (not to mention the constant distraction of whatever Tom Hanks was doing). Colin Farrell was excellent in The Banshees of Inisherin, but the best lines went to his castmates and in the end, I couldn’t drum up much sympathy for the character. Living’s Nighy, on the other hand, was graceful and understated from his first frame to his last. By a hair, though, I’d give the prize to Paul Mescal for expressing more in one wounded Aftersun expression than all of Fraser’s caterwauling.
Jen:
But what about when Colin Farrell says, “I’m not putting my donkey outside when I’m sad”?!? The man can get an Oscar nomination by acting opposite a donkey, and I think we need to recognize that. Pádraic and Jenny forever. I had just gotten used to the idea of Colin Farrell winning his first Oscar for not just this role but a slew of great roles he’s had recently – in this year he was also The Penguin in The Batman and a father desperately trying to repair his AI aupair in After Yang. After his shocking loss at BAFTA (the British Oscars, the closest thing to a home field advantage), my donkey’s coming in the house with me because I’m very sad to say he’s out of the running.
Austin Butler won BAFTA instead, and then Brendan Fraser won SAG. So it’s an even split right now between those two. Almost every podcast I’ve listened to post-SAG has been evenly divided amongst their hosts and guests, with half predicting Butler and the other half predicting Fraser. Here are the two sides to the argument. Fraser has the comeback narrative, and a vote for him is a feel good vote. And his performance is classic Oscars bait, with prosthetics and yelling (according to Antonio – I still haven’t seen it yet!). Austin, meanwhile, has the hot young actor of the moment thing going for him. And, for better or worse, he has also a ton of press about his Elvis voice not going away during acceptance speeches and the untimely (timely if you’re his PR team) death of Lisa Marie Presley, who accompanied Butler to the Golden Globes right before she died. Nominations indicate that there’s a lot more love for Elvis than The Whale overall. And a vote for Butler is a vote for The King himself. We’ve been here before with Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. (For the record, I think Elvis is better than Bohemian Rhapsody.)
I thought Butler was a great Elvis in a movie about Elvis that decidedly did not work for me. It was all excess and no structure, and, more importantly, the framing of the story around Tom Hanks’ character was distracting and confusing. I’ve been telling friends to watch it but fast forward until you get to the next musical number because that’s where Butler shines the most.
On the night, if we see Makeup and Hairstyling go to The Whale, it’s Fraser. If that craft award goes to Elvis, it’s Butler. The stats or too strong for those wins to go untethered. I’m leaning towards Butler right now, but I’m of a suspicious mind (sorry/not sorry).
Listen to the audio recording of our full conversation about this and seven other major Oscar categories here.