I know the craft categories are not as glamorous as acting, director, or picture, but they sometimes make or break a film’s chances of winning awards. If one film racks up enough nominations in these technical ore design categories, it could be a sign it is strong enough to not only get into Best Picture, but to win Best Picture.
Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
Image Credit: Vogue
Asteroid City should be a no-brainer here, and yet the Oscars has some weird aversion to Wes Anderson. (Also, this particular Wes Anderson film came and went even more quietly than The French Dispatch, so voters are probably just not even thinking about it.) This category generally rewards two things: creating an immersive sense of a whole other world — that’s Barbie and Poor Things — and building a big set, like recreating an entire town — that’s Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. And previous nominee Parasite proved that if your movie takes place in a house, it has good odds here, so I’m rounding out my list with The Zone of Interest.
Costume
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Maestro
Image Credit: Gold Derby
Hi, Barbie! This category is Barbie’s best chance of winning because it has quantity of costumes, quality of costumes, and all of Barbie’s fits help tell her character’s story over the course of the film, gradually transitioning from flashier and more structured to softer and more realistic. Emma Stone’s puffy sleeves are enough to get Poor Things a nomination, and Killers of the Flower Moon has the intricacy, vibrancy, and cultural authenticity behind it. Yesterday,
and had to talk me down from putting Napoleon in a bunch of different craft categories — I panicked because if it’s in VFX, Sound, and Costume, doesn’t that mean it gets into Best Picture?! But then I came to my senses and scaled back to just Costume. This branch loves 17th and 18th century designs because they are typically so elaborate. Lots of pundits have Oppenheimer in the last spot, but I think the suits are a little too austere and modern to grab voters’ attention. If there is a total Oppenheimer sweep, though, I will be wrong. But, Jen, couldn’t you say the same thing about Maestro? You could, but that film has a wider range of 20th century costumes that help tell the story of Leonard Bernstein and Felicia Montealegre’s marriage, starting in the 1950s and ends in the 70s and 80s.Makeup and Hairstyling
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
Golda
Image Credit: Variety
Whether or not you think Bradley Cooper’s prosthetic nose plays, there’s no denying that it’s a prominent and visible nose. And voters love to reward a lot of noticeable styling, favoring prosthetics above all else. Poor Things and Oppenheimer get a boost from being presumptive Best Picture nominees, but I think Emma Stone’s dark eyebrows and hair are transformative and character-defining in their own way. The parade of bald caps in Oppenheimer are less notable to me, but I get it. I chickened out and stopped watching Society of the Snow once I sensed the grim survival narrative kicking in, but the makeup work required for all the plane crash injuries and frostbite did look very real. And, of course, craft categories delight in nominating totally random films no one has seen because they often want to reward the work in their field regardless of how acclaimed the film itself is. Transforming Helen Mirren into Golda Meir seems like just that kind of nomination. I’ve heard talk of The Last Voyage of the Demeter here, but I think the general bias against horror is too strong.
Editing
Jennifer Lame Oppenheimer
Kevin Tent The Holdovers
Laurent Sénéchal Anatomy of a Fall
Thelma Schoonmaker Killers of the Flower Moon
Nick Houy Barbie
Image Credit: Polygon
The editing branch often gravitates towards a lot of editing or very noticeable editing. For that reason, Jennifer Lame’s intercutting of the vastness of time and space with close-ups of Cillian Murphy fits the bill perfectly. And I still can’t stop thinking about some of the 1970s-inspired transitions and zooms in The Holdovers. One brilliant cut towards the end of Anatomy of a Fall alone could garner a nomination. Meanwhile, Barbie has several flashy song and dance numbers, which usually pop up here (see Elvis, tick…tick…BOOM!, and La La Land). I’m less sure about Killers here because it was so long. After all, I’m leaving Poor Things out because I think there are sections of the film that drag and aren’t as crisply edited, especially towards the end.
Cinematography
Hoyte van Hoytema Oppenheimer
Rodrigo Prieto Killers of the Flower Moon
Matthew Libatique Maestro
Robbie Ryan Poor Things
Edward Lachman El Condé
Image Credit: LA Times
This was the year of movies with black & white and color because every single nominee on my list features both! I keep taking Poor Things out and putting it back because I’m not sure if everyone will appreciate the use of a fish eye lens (*waves at
). I wouldn’t be surprised if Łukasz Żal got in instead for The Zone of Interest. I’m also not sure about Maestro (do I hear an echo in here?), but even if you think the story and script don’t work, it’s hard to deny that this film is dramatically and beautifully shot. Then I remembered that lately this branch has been nominating films not otherwise in the Oscars conversation (see Bardo and Empire of Light from last year). El Condé, Pablo Larrain’s fascist vampire story on Netflix, seems like the most likely rando nom because it got nominated by the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC).Sound
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Ferrari
The Zone of Interest
Killers of the Flower Moon
Image Credit: The Hollywood Reporter
The first rule about the Sound category: cars go vroom and bombs go boom. Even if Penelope Cruz doesn’t make it in for Supporting Actress, Ferrari — which has not done very well in or out of the Oscars conversation — could still get in for all the roaring motors in its racing scenes. And sometimes strategic use of silence matters as much as the big booms, as is the case in Oppenheimer and Killers. Films that heavily feature music always do well here, which gets Maestro in the door YET AGAIN. (Are my predictions off because there’s too much Maestro or is a film that only some people like really going to get this much Oscars love?) The Zone of Interest (which I haven’t had a chance to see yet) apparently uses sound to horrifying effect.
Visual Effects
The Creator
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
This is the one category in which big blockbusters can shine. Everyone wants Godzilla Minus One to be here so it gets some kind of acknowledgment, but I think that’s wishful thinking. Similarly, I don’t trust the Academy to recognize visual effects used in animation, so Spider-Verse is not on my list. Marvel often has a spot reserved on this roster, and, despite a bad year, Guardians was well-loved enough to maintain that trend. The de-aging of Harrison Ford was honestly the best we’ve seen in the industry thus far, and I’m banking on fellow effects artists to appreciate how far that technology has come. The Creator has a behind the scenes narrative behind it, as it apparently it made great strides on the cheap. I agree; the sundry robots all looked great.
Score
Ludwig Göransson Oppenheimer
Robbie Robertson Killers of the Flower Moon
Jerskin Fendrix Poor Things
Daniel Pemberton Across the Spider-verse
Joe Hisaishi The Boy and Heron
First and foremost: JOE HISAISHI NEEDS AN OSCAR. WE CAN DO THIS, ACADEMY! If my rageful enthusiasm is any indication, The Boy and the Heron’s haunting and lyrical score is the closest to a hope-diction I have. I’m nervous that we’d get two animated films in this category, as that seems unlikely, but I can’t bring myself to kick out either one of them. Am I even right about Poor Things? What if people think that score is too dissonant and weird? And I don’t know why I’m not listening to my advice, but never count out John Williams. It seems unlikely that Dial of Destiny, a franchise film that received mixed reviews and under-performed at the box office, would get not one but two nominations, but John Williams has been nominated 53 times. 53 times! I’m a fool.
Song
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas Barbie
“The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren Flamin’ Hot
“Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz Rustin
“It Never Went Away” by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson American Symphony
“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt Barbie
Image Credit: Business Insider (Ryan Gosling looked very confused when “I’m Just Ken” won the Critic’s Choice Award.)
The biggest mystery here is not will Diane Warren be nominated for an obscure song from a film no one has seen. She always does. It’s can Barbie score two spots (the maximum one film is allowed) in the Best Original Song line-up? The quiet and poignant “What Was I Made For?” is stereotypically the type of song the Academy loves to reward, but will “I’m Just Ken” be Kenough? I’m optimistic that this won’t turn into a “Dos Oruguitas” vs. “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” situation. To those who say comedy songs never get in, I present exhibit A: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (2020). It’s certainly less common, but not impossible. “Road to Freedom” feels like the type of rousing, inspirational ballad we frequently see in this category. And it feels weird not to nominate a song from the music documentary that’s a major player in Documentary Feature.
Speaking of…
Documentary Feature
American Symphony
20 Days in Mariopol
Beyond Utopia
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
Image Credit: Imdb
I’m notoriously bad at watching documentaries because I much prefer a narrative feature film, so I’m mostly relying on other folks’ opinions here. A Still Small Voice has been on some lists as well, so that’s a potential spoiler here.
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Even if I get very few of these predictions correct, I’ll be relieved to finally know in the morning. Wish me luck!