2023 Oscar Nominations Predictions (Part One)

Who will get an Oscar nomination tomorrow morning?

As I mentioned in my preamble for the inaugural LTR Awards, Oscar nominations are right around the corner, with Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid announcing all of this year’s nominees at 8:30AM ET on Good Morning America (streaming on ABC News Live, Disney+, and Oscar.com). I’m throwing my hat in the ring with a full set of predictions in 20 of the 23 categories. (I don’t know anything about the shorts right now.) These predicted nominees are the result of tracking precursor awards like the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, SAG, and the BAFTAs (the British Oscars), listening to hours of awards season podcasts, reading all of the heavy-hitting pundits’ predictions, monitoring the odds and rankings on Gold Derby, and, of course, seeing as many of these movies as I can.

[Note: I have exceeded the length limit for a Substack post, and will break up my predictions into two separate posts.]

Supporting Actress 

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)

In the lead by a mile here is Da’Vine Joy Randolph, as she has won what seems like every precursor award. She absolutely deserves it too. And while critics’ mileage may vary on how substantive Emily Blunt’s role is in Oppenheimer, she will likely get swept up in the film’s overall domination. (Personally, I’d defend her performance because I think she does a lot with a relatively underwritten character.) I’m less sure about the last three spots, but I think Oscar/industry favorites like Foster and Cruz have a good chance, as they stand out as bright spots in films that have received mixed reviews. The Color Purple has largely fallen out of the race (and if it does underperform on Tuesday, that means I was right from the beginning and should have stuck to my guns), but many pundits think Brooks will be the film’s lone nominee. I wasn’t quite bold enough to give Sandra Hüller a second nomination for The Zone of Interest (spoilers for Best Actress later), but she’s probably next on my list. As much as I loved America Ferrera in Barbie, I don’t think she has the juice, as her epic monologue will likely help writers Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s screenplay campaign than her own.

Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)

Charles Melton (May December)

Once he gave an unsurprisingly charming acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, Robert Downey Jr. cemented his frontrunner status, with Ryan Gosling’s infectious Kenergy not far behind. There was a flash of momentum earlier in the season for “the Riverdale guy,” Charles Melton, but it quickly fizzled. I think Melton’s misses at SAG and BAFTA are enough to kill his chances of winning, but not enough to keep him from being nominated (that may be wishful thinking on my part, though). Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for Mark Ruffalo, who was also an early favorite and also missed SAG and BAFTA. There is only room for one chauvinist buffoon in this category, and that’s means it’s just Ken. Willem Dafoe and Robert De Niro are legends who would likely get in regardless of how strong their performances are. I think De Niro gives the best performance he has had in a long while; his use of mild-mannered congeniality to mask evil, conspiratorial greed is spine-chilling. While I enjoyed Dafoe’s gentle portrayal of Godwin Baxter in Poor Things, he’s just coasting on his broader Oscar appeal if he gets in (and I think he will). I keep hearing pundits citing his Best Actor nomination for At Eternity’s Gate (2018), a middling film about Vincent Van Gogh. If he can get in for that, he can get in for a good but ultimately uncomplicated performance.

Actor

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

My love for Oppenheimer might blind me here, but I think Cillian Murphy should be running away with this category without question, despite Paul Giamatti giving his best performance since Sideways. That said, Cillian Murphy isn’t going viral from eating In-N-Out with his freshly won Golden Globe on the table and then making jokes about it when he wins his Critic’s Choice award. That’s A+ campaigning right there. Either way, I think they are both safe picks. Jeffrey Wright is also deserving for playing a prickly, erudite author who suddenly has to step up and take care of his family. He constantly has to balance comedy and tragedy, just like Giamatti. I’m nervous that I’m assuming he should get in and as such should brace myself to be disappointed there, even with a SAG ensemble nomination for American Fiction, which indicates general love for the film. Maestro, on the other hand, has been one of the most divisive films of the season. I enjoyed Cooper’s performance, even though he’s really Acting with a capital A and going over the top with a transatlantic accent and prosthetic nose. He’s been campaigning really hard as both actor and director, but I am genuinely unsure if his “trying too hard” energy will backfire or if folks will want to make up for his losses with A Star is Born (2018). Colman Domingo has a similarly Oscar-baity role, transforming himself to play a real-life larger than life figure, and that’s enough to snag the last spot. The real tragedy of the day will be “hot priest” Andrew Scott’s absence, as he shockingly didn’t even get nominated on his home turf at BAFTA. I’d loved to be surprised, though.

Actress

Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Aunjenue Ellis-Taylor (Origin)

Buckle up, everyone. This category is highly competitive and — beyond neck-and-neck frontrunners Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone — very uncertain, with the longest list of contenders who could replace the names I’ve listed. Where’s Margot Robbie, the producer and star of one of the biggest movies of the year? Barbie is on a downswing, and I cynically think most people won’t realize just how thoughtful and masterful her shift from sheltered doll to warm-blooded human actually is. Where’s four-time Oscar nominee Annette Bening, who swims for miles in Nyad and is arguably overdue? With a crowded field of actors from more critically acclaimed films, no amount of chapped skin can overcome an unlikeable character in what’s merely a serviceable sports movie. And I can’t believe I’m saying that one of my personal favs, Greta Lee from Past Lives, won’t make it in, despite a very strong red carpet presence. The reality is that Lee’s performance is likely too subtle to redirect attention from louder and flashier roles. My no guts no glory prediction here is Aunjenue Ellis-Taylor because Origin has been largely absent from season. That is, UNTIL influential figures in Hollywood like Angelina Jolie decided to host screenings and spam social media, making a last-minute push for Ava DuVernay’s adaptation of a book by Isabel Wilkerson that connects racism in the U.S. with the caste system in India and Nazi Germany. I’m banking on previous nominee Ellis-Taylor (for King Richard in 2022) popping up as the nom no one (or very few) saw coming.

Director

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

I know, I know. I should be protecting my heart here and predicting an all-male lineup. The Director’s branch has the reputation of being among the snobbiest and the most old school. But Palme d’Or winner Justine Triet’s subversive crime procedural has over-performed so much thus far that I have a glimmer of hope that at least one out of the three female contenders could hear her name called on Tuesday. That would come at the expense of Greta Gerwig, who many pundits have on their lists because she has been nominated in this category before. Lady Bird, however, is a quirky coming-of-age indie dramedy, with a lot more prestige than a summer blockbuster about a famous toy. Much like Denis Villeneuve’s snub for Dune, I think the Academy will choose not to acknowledge Gerwig’s achievements with Barbie, in spite of — actually, I guess I’m saying because of — how much money it made at the box office. Meanwhile, Alexander Payne’s quirky coming-of-age indie dramedy has been over-performing all over the place. He’s also been nominated for Best Director three times before. And finally, after Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) missed at BAFTA, I decided to swap him out for Jonathan Glazer, whose film about a family living adjacent to Auschwitz has been surging, I suspect because more and more people have been able to see it. I am not one of those people, but so many critics have said that it is in a class of filmmaking all its own or that it sticks with you in a way other films do not. It’s also the current favorite to win International Feature, and the recent trend has been to award the film in that position in Director and Picture.

Picture

Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures, available to rent or buy at home)

Barbie (Warner Bros., streaming on Max)

Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures, in theaters)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures and Apple Original Films, streaming on AppleTV+)

The Holdovers (Focus Features, streaming on Peacock)

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon, available to rent or buy at home)

Past Lives (A24, available to rent or buy at home)

American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios, in theaters)

Maestro (Netflix, now streaming)

The Zone of Interest (A24, in theaters)

Most of the films on here have been in the conversation all season, with the first four listed on here as sure bets. It’s Barbenheimer’s world; we just live in it.

Confusingly, some films on this list have risen and fallen every time we hit a new checkpoint in the race. Maestro, for examples, has been up and down, and while it seems like it’s losing steam now, that could very well change on nomination morning, as I have it getting into quite a few craft or “below the line” categories. Critics frequently have suspected that the wave of negativity towards Bradley Cooper’s unconventional biopic as “an Internet thing” that won’t hurt its Oscar chances. On the other side of this wavering coin is The Color Purple. Despite some strong campaigning by its producer, Oprah Winfrey, the musical adaptation has been on an Oscars rollercoaster ever since early preview screenings this fall. Critics have gone from “ooo, this is going to be big” to “oh, maybe it’s not actually a contender” and back again several times. The film, for example, had a big box office opening on Christmas Day, but then has dropped off the map since. It missed Best Musical or Comedy at the Globes, which really should have been its easiest win. Still, its star, American Idol winner Fantasia Barrino, made it into Best Actress at the BAFTAs. If we’re in for a big surprise, I would guess it’s with one of these two films.

Meanwhile, critical darling Past Lives has steadily become more vulnerable over time, as it desperately tries to maintain momentum after having premiered at Sundance nearly a year ago now. The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall, on the other hand, have only increased strength, especially since televised awards like the Globes and Critic’s Choice have aired. The Zone of Interest is the last to arrive at this party, with an especially strong showing at BAFTA and a shocking inclusion in the PGA (Producer’s Guild) 10. When that happened, I immediately put it in my Best Picture predictions. It seems that France’s denial of Anatomy of a Fall for their International Feature bid has only bolstered its power outside of that category, and, in the process, opened up two spots for prominent international features. The Academy, it seems, will still want to make room for the frontrunner in International Feature, The Zone of Interest.

Jonathan Glazer’s adaptation of a Martin Amis novel has, in turn, pushed out a couple key films that were “on the bubble,” so to speak: Todd Haynes’ May December hit the scene with a lot of buzz once it started streaming on Netflix, but based on SAG nominations, it looks like the actor’s branch may not have appreciated what they thought the film had to say about actors or acting as a profession. And they’re a big voting block that could make or break a polarizing film’s Best Picture chances. I would be thrilled to see it squeak in, but I’m not holding my breath.

I should also mention that this list is identical to the PGA 10. Historically, the PGA has been 80-90% predictive of the Oscars’ 10. Usually you swap out one or two films and you’re there. This year, nearly every pundit I follow is sticking with the PGA 10, with no changes. Will we all have egg on our faces Tuesday morning? I’m nervous, to say the least.

Original Screenplay

Past Lives by Celine Song

Anatomy of a Fall by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

The Holdovers by David Hemingson

May December by Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

Maestro by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer

The Original Screenplay category has the reputation of being a place where smaller, artsier, or quirkier movies can get recognized. And now that presumed frontrunner Barbie has moved to Adapted Screenplay, there’s a lot more room for films that could strike out in most other categories. Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall are films that even on a bad nomination day get at least this category. The Holdovers is likely Best Picture-bound, with strong acting contenders, so a complementary nom here makes sense. (The writing is also super smart and funny.) May December has lost a lot of steam, but casting director Samy Burch has been campaigning well, and once a voter finds out this is her first screenplay, I think they’re casting their vote regardless of how they feel about the film. Maestro is the one I’m the least confident in, mostly because I think that the writing is that film’s weakest component because the themes and structure don’t come across clearly enough. I’m tempted to swap it out for Saltburn, as Emerald Fennell won in this category for Promising Young Woman. But Saltburn is a lot more provocative and divisive than Maestro. Wes Anderson’s nesting egg frame narratives in Asteroid City would be a fun surprise here, but he has such a bad track record with the Oscars post-Grand Budapest Hotel that predicting it would be too big a swing.

Adapted Screenplay

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Barbie

Poor Things

American Fiction

This field is incredibly crowded this year, with far more contenders than Original, even before Barbie moved over. Ultimately, my list favors Best Picture contenders, especially ones that have made strong or drastic adaptive choices. But if enough voters realize The Zone of Interest is based on a Martin Amis novel of the film over-performs more broadly, it could get in. In any other year, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret would have a spot, as what it adds only enriches the story. Much to

Antonio Elefano

’s chagrin, All of Us Strangers didn’t sweep BAFTA, which is what it needed to do to show signs of Oscar life.

Animated Feature 

Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Animation, now streaming on Netflix)

The Boy and the Heron (Studio Ghibli, in theaters)

Nimona (Annapurna Pictures/Netflix, now streaming on Netflix)

Elemental (Disney and Pixar Animation Studios, now streaming on Disney+)

Super Mario Bros. (Illumination, now streaming on Netflix)

The big headline here is that Disney no longer holds a default spot in this category. After Disney’s Wish and Pixar’s Elemental both got shut out of the animator’s branch awards’ nominations, very few pundits have Wish on their list. Elemental, on the other hand, should stick around because it did surprisingly well at the box office by the end of the summer after an underwhelming opening. Including box office juggernaut, Super Mario Bros. is my riskiest pick, but here’s my logic: in the absence of Disney, we’re down a major studio that automatically gets a nomination because they’re so widely known. Illumination, which has had more hits than Disney in the last few years, is poised to assume that position. Plus, if we’re using the box office success rationale for Barbie nominations, there’s no reason to not apply that same thinking here. Netflix’s Nimona was the victor of the Annies with nine nominations; that makes me very comfortable to predict it. The Boy and the Heron, to me, checks off the artsy box that Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio did last year. There are several potential spoilers in this category, though, including a Spanish-French film that Neon picked up called Robot Dreams (the trailer made me want to see it), the disappointingly generic Aardman sequel, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, and Suzume, the anime film from the creators of Your Name.

International Feature

The Zone of Interest

Society of the Snow

20 Days in Mariopol

Perfect Days

Teacher’s Lounge

The first three on this list I’m fairly confident in, as they will likely reach into other categories. In 2021, Flee set the precedent for a film to get nominated in both Documentary and International Feature, paving the way for 20 Days in Mariopol. I’ve heard too many people rave about Perfect Days, which follows custodian as he cleans public toilets in Tokyo. Many pundits have France’s indulgen culinary film, The Taste of Things, as well as the Finnish romantic comedy, Fallen Leaves. Sophia Ciminello of the Oscar Wild podcast pointed out that this category usually goes for serious films about important issues, so I’m leaving those off.

…

To be continued…here.